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Send for a one-armed economist
By Jean Godden
Plain-speaking President Harry Truman once said he didn't want economists hedging by saying, "On the one hand" and then adding "but on the other hand." Truman said: "Bring me a one-armed economist."
Seems like history repeating itself when it comes to Seattle's economic health: There's good news on one hand; bad news on the other. Although the nation faces severe economic woes, academic, business and government observers who recently briefed the City Council believe Seattle may escape the full force of the national recession. Credit goes to the healthy local export trade.
But the panelists did say Seattle should brace for a slowdown that will impact our local economy and slow city revenues. They also pointed to concern over some new city initiatives that will raise costs in 2009 and beyond. Those include adding 20 police officers each year and increased funding for housing and services needed for the 10-Year Plan to End Homelessness.
The combination of slow revenue growth and the increases means that, more than likely, cuts will be required to balance the 2009-2010 general fund budgets. Furthermore, the slowdown in real estate sales tax revenues in 2008 requires that some capital projects will have to be canceled or postponed. By law, the city must live within its means. The budget must balance; expenditures must match revenues.
Along with those gloomy prospects, there are rays of hope. Forecasters report the local housing market is healthier than most; there's strong export growth and The Boeing Co. has a record order backlog. The experts believe job growth here will stay positive and the area will remain attractive to newcomers.
This mixed economic news will impact the 2009-2010 budget, work that already is under way. Preparing a city-sized budget requires a large amount of time and a careful ordering of priorities. Ideally, it also requires one more essential ingredient: meaningful public involvement. That's why the council has been making arrangements to hold citizen meetings, scheduled for 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. on four dates in May.
Here's the lineup: Miller Park Community Center, 330 19th Ave. E., May 8; Ballard Northwest Activity Center, 5429 32nd Ave. N.W., May 20; High Point Community Center, 6920 34th Ave. S.W., May 22; and Rainier Valley Cultural Center, 3515 S. Alaska St., May 29.
In a tough year -- which this one figures to be -- it means not being able to do all the things that citizens want government to do. When needs are great and means are meager, fashioning a budget may be like trying to stuff a hippopotamus into a suit meant for a gazelle.
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